Executive summary
- Global oil prices surged past $100/barrel despite record emergency reserve releases, driven by escalating Middle East tensions.
- US and Israeli airstrikes continue in Iran, with Tehran reporting power cuts and “black rain” from oil facility damage.
- Ukraine struck a key Russian missile component plant, while Hungary’s election campaign is influenced by the ongoing conflict.
- China’s National People’s Congress concluded, focusing on economic stability and technological self-reliance, setting a 4.5-5% GDP growth target.
- Major tech firms like Meta, Oracle, and Nvidia announced significant AI chip developments and investments.
- Revolut secured a full UK banking license, and Microsoft plans its next-gen Xbox prototype for 2027.
International Relations & Diplomacy
- US-Iran Tensions & Diplomatic Engagements
- US Trade Policy Shifts
- EU Energy Strategy Amid Conflict
- EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that returning to Russian energy would be a “strategic blunder” for Europe.
- This stance comes despite a painful energy supply crunch caused by the Iran war and ongoing efforts to ban Russian energy imports.
- Russian President Putin, sensing opportunity, threatened to stop fuel exports to Europe and redirect them to other markets.
- (Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/eu-russian-gas-oil-iran-war-ukraine.html)
- Diplomatic Disputes
- South Africa summoned the new US Ambassador, Leo Brent Bozell III, over “undiplomatic remarks” regarding a controversial anti-apartheid chant.
- The comments were viewed as disrespecting South Africa’s legal system, further straining US-South Africa relations.
- (Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c14m1vzmxz3o)
- Three Norwegian brothers with Iraqi links were arrested for a “terror bombing” outside the US embassy in Oslo.
- The blast caused minor damage; motivation theories include potential foreign state actor involvement.
- (Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2grl7lrrmo)
Major Regional Events
- Escalation of US-Israel War in Iran
- US and Israeli airstrikes continue across Iran, causing explosions, power cuts, and “black rain” from damaged oil facilities in Tehran and Karaj.
- Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRANA) reported 1,761 deaths, including 1,245 civilians and 194 children, since the war began.
- Internet access is severely restricted in Iran, with residents using Starlink devices discreetly despite legal risks.
- Video analysis indicates a US Tomahawk missile hit an IRGC military base near a primary school in Minab, reportedly killing 168 people.
- Mojtaba Khamenei, a hardliner with strong ties to the IRGC, was appointed Iran’s new Supreme Leader; his family members were killed in recent airstrikes.
- (Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1mj1pyrzryo, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cev7llekwllo, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqxd1nv3re2o, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg548lyjnyo, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/five-things-to-know-about-irans-new-supreme-leader-mojtaba-khamenei.html)
- Lebanon & West Bank Violence
- Ukraine-Russia War Front
- Ukrainian forces struck Russia’s Kremniy El plant in the Bryansk region, a critical factory producing missile components, using British Storm Shadow missiles.
- Russia reported 6 civilian deaths and 42 injuries, attributing the attack to Ukraine and implicating British specialists.
- The war is significantly impacting Hungary’s election campaign, with its government alleging Ukrainian interference.
- (Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg1eqw30l9o, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crm8rxwyyz8o)
- DR Congo Conflict
- A French Unicef aid worker and two others were killed in drone strikes on a residential building in Goma, DR Congo, a city controlled by M23 rebels.
- French President Macron urged respect for humanitarian law, while the UN mission condemned the violence.
- (Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgj8veg0gno)
Global Economic & Market Movers
- Oil Market Upheaval
- Global oil prices surged over 8%, with Brent crude topping $100/barrel, despite the IEA announcing a record release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves.
- The US also committed to releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
- Market skepticism persists, with analysts viewing the IEA’s move as signaling acute shortage risk and a prolonged Middle East conflict.
- Three more cargo vessels were struck in the Gulf, intensifying fears over shipping disruptions in the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran continues to export millions of oil barrels to China via the Strait of Hormuz, with many vessels “going dark” to avoid detection.
- China has accelerated oil stockpiling, with crude imports surging 15.8% in the first two months of the year.
- Chubb will lead a US-government-backed program to provide insurance for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- (Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1w5141vx53o, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly093xxlzzo, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/12/oil-prices-jump-iea-record-reserve-release-markets-doubt-relief.html, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/12/plans-for-record-emergency-oil-release-signal-middle-east-war-could-drag-on-for-months.html, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/iran-ships-oil-china-strait-hormuz-closure-.html, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/cargo-ship-struck-strait-of-hormuz-uk-iran-war.html, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/iran-israel-war-strait-hormuz-shipping-oil-insurance.html)
- Inflation & Food Security Concerns
- US consumer prices rose 0.3% monthly and 2.4% annually in February, in line with expectations, but pre-dates the full impact of oil price hikes.
- Treasury yields gained, reflecting sticky inflation and rising oil prices, with the Federal Reserve expected to hold rates.
- The Middle East conflict threatens a global food price shock due to disruptions in fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Regions most vulnerable include Sub-Saharan Africa, Gulf countries (Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia), and parts of Asia (India, Bangladesh, Thailand, Indonesia).
- India’s restaurants face an LPG supply crunch due to the Iran war, as household supply is prioritized, threatening business closures.
- (Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/cpi-inflation-report-february-2026.html, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/us-treasury-yields-investors-await-key-inflation-report-.html, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/12/a-global-food-price-shock-looms-as-middle-east-war-rages-on.-heres-who-will-be-hit-hardest.html, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/iran-news-food-prices-could-rise-due-to-fertilizer-shortages.html, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/10/-iran-war-lpg-disruption-india-restaurants.html)
- Asian Economic Policy & Trade Routes
Science, Tech, & Health (Major Developments)
- AI Hardware & Infrastructure Boom
- Meta unveiled four custom, in-house AI chips (MTIA family) for data center expansion, aiming for diverse silicon supply and price insulation for training smaller AI models and generative AI.
- Oracle’s shares spiked 9% after strong Q3 earnings, calming Wall Street concerns about its AI cloud computing buildout, with over $29 billion in new contracts.
- Nvidia announced a $2 billion investment in AI cloud company Nebius Group, fostering collaboration on AI infrastructure and factory design.
- The Iran war raises questions for massive AI infrastructure buildouts in the Middle East, with data centers already targeted by Iranian attacks, causing digital service outages.
- (Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/meta-ai-mtia-chip-data-center.html, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/oracle-orcl-stock-q3-earnings-ai-data-center.html, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/nebius-stock-pops-16-on-nvidia-2-billion-investment-announcement.html, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/iran-war-hyperscalers-huge-middle-east-ai-data-center-plans.html)
- Cyber Warfare & Security
- Cyber warfare is playing a significant, though covert, role in the US-Israel conflict with Iran, involving espionage and disruption of communications.
- US Cyber Command has worked to “blind” Iran’s response capabilities; Israel is suspected of hacking an Iranian prayer app.
- Iran’s direct cyber retaliation has been limited, but an Iran-linked group reportedly hit medical technology firm Stryker.
- (Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yr0576ygvo)
- Fintech & Consumer Tech